Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/12-14, likely voters, 12/3-6 in parens):
Ethan Berkowitz (D): 50 (49)
Don Young (R-inc): 40 (42)
(MoE: ±4%)
I really believe that Young is doomed this year, but I fear that he won’t survive his party’s primary.
On the other hand, with no meaningful primary challenge against him, Stevens very likely will go all the way to November:
Mark Begich (D): 48 (47)
Ted Stevens (R-inc): 43 (41)
(MoE: ±4%)
Damn, son.
Another fun fact: Obama only trails McCain by seven points in Alaska, so Begich and Berkowitz won’t be dealing with a John Kerry-like drag at the top of the ticket (Hillary trails by 18 in the same poll). This is roughly in line with another recent Rasmussen poll, which showed Obama trailing McCain by only five points here.
Alaska could just be a major battleground not only for Berkowitz and Begich, but for Obama, as well.
SSP currently rates AK-AL as “Tossup” and AK-Sen as “Leans Republican“.
Is that Parnell will advertise this poll and will be able to make a very compelling argument, vote for me because Young is going to lose.
Although, while Parnell is an excellent candidate, I wonder how competitive the race would still be even if it were him. Open seats are easier to pick-up still so we wouldn’t be completely out in the weeds on this one.
AK-Senate looks extremely promising. Lets get those 9 seats!
Seriously, how amazing would it be if in 2008 Democrats took the US Senate Seat, the lone Congressional seat, AND Alaska’s 3 electoral votes. lol I had seen some polls awhile ago that showed Obama competitive. All it would take is probably actually GOING to Alaska. Does anyone know when the last time a Presidentail Candidate actually did?
Which would be just as bad for us.
I imagine the GOP has a candidate lined up for this eventuality. Don’t know who it is, but any Alaska blogger probably would.
I think we’d still win in that case, but it could get tricky.
on parnell vs. berkowitz. open seats are harder in very red districts – which alaska is. so this goes from tossup or lean dem to lean rep overnight if parnell is the nominee.
. . . have an open primary? If so, we blogger-types should start up a movement analogous to the righties' Operation Chaos (don't worry, it's a link to an article about it, not a link to the source), such that we can put Young over the top in the primary.
(If it's a closed primary, is there still time for people up there to change their registration?)
The impact of a Democratic US Senator is pretty huge compared to a US House seat. Granted I am all for both Berkowitz & Begich getting their respective races, if Mayor Begich can take out Ted Stevens, that’ll put the Democrats that much closer to the 60 seats needed to absolutely control the agenda (whereas in the House, having the majority is what it is, control).
I hope that Young is able to pull out the primary, so Berkowitz can go head to head against corruption. As for Stevens, I’m glad to hear there is a 3rd party right wing candidate to pull some disenfranchized right-wingers away from Stevens.
GO STEVENS! – get to 60! (Need 9)
GO BERKOWITZ! – get to 260! (Need 24)
GO DEMOCRATS! – WIN IN NOVEMBER! (House Gains, Senate Gains, WH Take-over!)
I understand caution and what not, but there have been multiple polls showing Begich ahead of Stevens. While it might not be a Leans Democrat, I think it should, at the very least, be considered Toss-up.
Hey, I’m all about the 50 state strategy, but that’s a long expensive flight just to put three EVS into play. I guess he’d get a lot of frequent flyer miles.
Write it down. And I do not think it will even end up being close. I think Young’s antics have finally worn thin on his constituents, and with the GOP out of the majority — and Young out of a chairmanship — he is going to be beaten by Sarah Palin’s cabana boy, aka Sean Parnell.
I share James’ worries on a Parnell-Berkowitz match-up. I think Berkowitz could win, but it would be am uphill fight. Parnell is an empty vessel who has only been LG for 1.5 years, but Palin’s numbers are astronomical, and her coattails would be wide.